Treasury Center
Treasury yields anchor the entire fixed-income market. Mortgage rates track MBS, which trade at a spread over Treasuries — so yield movement is the first thing a mortgage desk watches.
Benchmark yields
5:00 PM EDT30-Year Treasury
Daily5.43%
unch
- Prior close
- 5.430%
- Open
- —%
- Day range
- —
10-Year Treasury
Daily5.09%
−1.0 bps (yield down — rate-friendly)
- Prior close
- 5.100%
- Open
- —%
- Day range
- —
5-Year Treasury
Daily4.89%
−2.0 bps (yield down — rate-friendly)
- Prior close
- 4.910%
- Open
- —%
- Day range
- —
2-Year Treasury
Daily4.74%
−3.0 bps (yield down — rate-friendly)
- Prior close
- 4.770%
- Open
- —%
- Day range
- —
Yield curve
2s10s spread
+35 bps
A deeply inverted curve historically signals rate-cut expectations; normalization tends to help MBS spreads.
5s30s spread
+54 bps
The long end drives the duration hedging that flows directly into mortgage pricing.
Federal Reserve Center
The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates. The Fed sets the overnight federal funds rate; mortgage rates price off MBS and the longer end of the curve. Fed policy influences mortgage rates through expectations, balance-sheet holdings, and inflation credibility.
Effective Fed Funds (EFFR)
3.88%
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · daily business-day publication · as of 2026-10-16
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
3.88%
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · daily business-day publication · as of 2026-10-16
Policy outlook
Vabasso Fed Decision Outlook
Deterministic FOMC probability scoring and the next policy catalyst are on the dashboard.
Treasury market summary
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.09% as of Oct. 16, 2026. The yield is 13 basis points lower than its close of 5.22% five business days earlier on Oct. 8, 2026. Treasury yields are the primary reference point for U.S. mortgage pricing, although mortgage rates can diverge from Treasuries when mortgage spreads widen or narrow.
The 2-Year Treasury yield is 4.74% as of Oct. 16, 2026, putting the 2s10s curve at +35 basis points — an upward-sloping curve, which historically accompanies a market pricing growth and term premium. The long end matters most for mortgages: 30-year mortgage pricing keys off intermediate and long maturities, not the overnight policy rate.
Values above are generated arithmetically from stored official observations — not written or estimated by AI. Each row shows the source, the observation date the value describes, and the publication cadence.
Data is informational only and may be delayed per provider licensing. Mortgage rates shown are national market indices or benchmarks unless specifically identified otherwise — not an APR, not a rate quote, not an offer, not a rate lock, and not a commitment to lend. Not investment or financial advice.